KK - Raise or Call?

[CoolDuck]

Allright back to hand posting.  I've been all over the place the last few days.

Opponent is (41,2,1) over 140 hands.

Basically loose passive in my experience

<a href="http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=364877" target="_blank">http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=364877</a>

Do you raise or call this turn?

[Deadmoney]

mmmmmm I am tempted to raise?, usually if he did hit a 6 they would C/R you as you've shown so much aggression.

Regards David

[jabit]

he has raised 3 times in the last 140 hands, and has waited for a 6 in the hole to 3-bet out of position? I don't buy it.

I'm much more concerned about AA or QQ. His range PF is maybe QQ+ and AK (maybe JJ or AQ). You aren't ahead of many hands here, and I think even fewer once this passive player starts betting into you from OOP on the flop and turn.

I unhappily call

[poskid]

I unhappily call

Yeah I agree with Jabit.  While we feel we have the best hand the last thing we want to see is him 3 betting us.  I'm much more comfortable allowing this player to bet an AQ at this point or possibly bluff a AK though that's really unlikely with his stats.  I cant see a reason to allow him to either bluff us off our hand or gain un-warranted big bets.  I think we are in WA/WB mode and should simply call down the pot is big enough to do so.  I call any river...even an A.

PK

[Tony]

Wow, bizarre as it feels to just call here, the only hands you're getting value from would be AKss (not possible since you hold the K of spades) and JJ.  It's likely his three-betting range is the same as his 'normal' raising range, and I'd guess 2% is JJ+.  He's probably not even raising AK preflop.

So I agree with jabit and PK, I think you just have to call it down.  It feels really odd to be saying that though.  I'll be honest, in the heat of the game I'd probably have raised without even thinking about it.  It would be an insta-raise for me versus most players.

I wonder if 140 hands is actually a large enough sample to be making a stats-based read like this?  I know that PFR converges fairly quickly, but for example in the Mak/Borer book they give a guideline of 200 hands as a ballpark figure.

In my experience guys like this will also on occasion choose to randomly three bet complete crap on a whim.  I'm guessing he showed you 63o or something 

[CoolDuck]

Results below:

*** TURN *** [ ] []
OPP - Bets $2
COOL_DUCK - Raises $4 to $4
OPP - Calls $2
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
OPP - Checks
COOL_DUCK - Bets $2
OPP - Calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
COOL_DUCK - Shows [ ] (Two Pair, kings and sixes)
OPP - Shows [ ] (Two Pair, aces and sixes)

First, I would say 140 hands is a bit light of a sample size, but it's better than 50 hands.  I wouldn't trust the sample size completely, but I think we can still draw conclusions about his playing style. 

These spots are tough against passive players.  Their 3 bet ranges pre-flop can be pretty small.  He doesn't reraise me on the flop.  I think his turn donk still has a relatively wide range.  Could be 1010+, AQs+.  I think they're more combinations of his holdings which I can raise profitabily.  So I raise.  And I'd call down if he 3-bet, though I'd hate it.
If he was a good player I might just call, since he could 3-bet the turn, this is a good play against a super aggressive player, or anyone who raises the turn often, to donk the turn and go for a 3-bet.

And the general line doesn't make much sense for aces.  3-bet/call cap, bet/call, donk bet.  Really?
I laughed after he showed aces, pretty strange.  If you're that scared of QQ to raise in this spot........

I guess I felt he was going to show me AQ enough of the time for this to be a value raise.  I understand the argument for calling if he's donking AK or medium pairs, but I thought even with those hands he might call down a raise, and the the second 6 puts a backdoor flush on the board, however unlikely that is.

Thoughts?

[Coughy_boy]

I agree with jabit, PK, and Tony.  What he's doing is so odd that I would slow down.  I wouldn't put him on AA, but I'm stumped, a bit lost here, so I'm happy to show down at this point.

I think his turn donk still has a relatively wide range.  Could be 1010+, AQs+.

In what way is this range "relatively wide?"  He's almost betting it like a set, IMO.