AKs - Fold tough turn to turn donk?

[CoolDuck]

Player 1 is relatively new to the table.  Pretty loose, but low aggression factor so far.
Player 2 is loose/passive.

<a href="http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=308767" target="_blank">http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=308767</a>

What do you do on this turn? 

[huge_yakman]

I can't fold, so will c/c the rest of the way. I don't see any help in raising here except to maybe charge the Ace of spades for the draw. Sorry I can't add anymore than that...just what is hitting me at the moment.

[Deadmoney]

I can't fold, so will c/c the rest of the way. I don't see any help in raising here except to maybe charge the Ace of spades for the draw. Sorry I can't add anymore than that...just what is hitting me at the moment.

........ I might do this against one player, but what do we beat that plays like this and we have no redraws?  every draw hit  's + QT

having said that would a flush lead?

toughie

Regards David

[huge_yakman]

I guess player 2 could be going for overcallers, but if he wakes up on the river for a raise, I'd let it go. If we get to call min-bet turn and river, then we are getting 5:1 that our TPTK is good. I still like player 1 for spade draw here, player 2 might have straight or baby flush.

A fold is definitely not bad and is probably better than calling down...still, no reason to raise.

[Tony]

I'd definitely call the turn closing the action.  If he has a hand like J9 you may have as many as 8 outs (three sixes, three aces and two kings), against K9 you may have six outs, sometimes you'll be ahead of hands like KQ or KT which he's trying to protect, and sometimes he'll have picked up a redraw to the flush with a pair, in which case you're ahead.    I think KJ is unlikely because he'd probably have three-bet the flop.  Obviously sometimes you'll be drawing dead to a flush, but you're getting good odds to showdown.

The caller in the middle is a bit of a pain, but he's loose and could easily be calling with a bare spade, JT etc.  He hasn't raised so there's no reason to think we should be worried.  It's difficult to read players like this but in general unless they raise I don't worry about them too much.  They love to call with all sorts of garbage.

On the river I'd make a decision depending upon which card fell and how the action went.  But if it goes bet -> fold then I'm probably showing down regardless.

[Coughy_boy]

On the river... if it goes bet -> fold then I'm probably showing down regardless.

I think this is the real issue here.  You can't look at pot odds, you must look at effective odds.  You don't want to call here and then fold on the next street; that would be stupid.  So you must decide now whether you're willing to commit two bets.

TBH, I'm including a set in the range here, and I'd probably bail out.

[CoolDuck]

Result...........

Dealt to COOL_DUCK [ ]

COOL_DUCK - Folds
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
JCBARFLY76 - Bets $2
RAVI7 - Calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JCBARFLY76 - Shows [ ] (Two Pair, jacks and nines)
RAVI7 - Shows [ ] (Two Pair, kings and nines)
RAVI7 Collects $19 from main pot

So in reality I was drawing to 3 outs.  Of course this just happened to be extreme with them both having two pair and someone having a king which countered some of my outs.

My thinking was:

1.)  I'm drawing dead some of the time in this pot. 
2.)  I have no back up spade.
3.)  My one pair loses the majority of the time here in a showdown with one card to come. Flush, straights, two pair, all in the range of my opponents hands.

I figure in reality I have maybe 4 effective outs.  8 to 1 to me just isn't enough.

Note:  If I'm heads up here, auto call down.

On the river... if it goes bet -> fold then I'm probably showing down regardless.

I think this is the real issue here.  You can't look at pot odds, you must look at effective odds.  You don't want to call here and then fold on the next street; that would be stupid.  So you must decide now whether you're willing to commit two bets.

TBH, I'm including a set in the range here, and I'd probably bail out.

My thinking was similiar, it's not one bet, we have to call two bets unless the passive caller raises on the river.

[Tony]

Yeah I can see what you're saying here, and you both make good points.  It's definitely close and it's hard to estimate your effective outs in this situation, but if you gave yourself 4 outs then yeah that would be a fold.  I wasn't being quite that pessimistic, and during the hand I'd have probably assumed it was close but I'd have given at least some weight to the possibility that he's betting a redraw + pair on the turn and you're still ahead, and the extra loose player will often just be padding the pot.  (In general I don't give bad players who are just calling too much credit, so to me the extra caller is usually just dead money and will likely call another bet on the river).

For these reasons and given that I was also closing the action I'd have probably made the call on the turn.  Maybe the river should be a fold if you don't improve, although I don't like that so much because if I'm calling the turn then his assumed range contains hands that I'm still beating.  Then again if you have a solid read that this passive player wouldn't bet the river without a hand that can beat top pair, then folding would be ok I guess.

Mmm, interesting hand, maybe a fold is better.  I'm just not used to folding TPTK, I should probably do it more often

To be honest I'm a bit rusty when it comes to multiway pots, I just don't see that that many in the games I play.  I should probably reread Matt Hilger's book and brush up on the basics.  Nice hand Duck.

[CoolDuck]

  I wasn't being quite that pessimistic, and during the hand I'd have probably assumed it was close but I'd have given at least some weight to the possibility that he's betting a redraw + pair on the turn and you're still ahead, and the extra loose player will often just be padding the pot.  (In general I don't give bad players who are just calling too much credit, so to me the extra caller is usually just dead money and will likely call another bet on the river).

I hear you Tony.  My very first thought was whether he was just donking a spade draw + a pair.  I decided my aggression combined with the caller in front of him made it less likely he was just donking this turn with a draw.  Generally I thought he was protecting his hand with his bet.

[Tony]

I decided my aggression combined with the caller in front of him made it less likely he was just donking this turn with a draw.  Generally I thought he was protecting his hand with his bet.

Yes and in fact at these stakes this is probably a more realistic assumption.  The more I think about it the more I think you made a good fold.