Collude to Game the VIP Program?

[huge_yakman]

This topic has been raised in the Bad-Beat Jackpot post and I'm fixing to write an extended essay regarding the possibilities of cheating the PokerStars VIP Program:

Tony brought up that there was a team that was pushing all-in every hand in order to maximize VPP/hand and therefore clear VIP Bonuses and Milestone Bonuses for profit. I suggested, and gave concrete evidence that this was not possible. Mel said, "it is totally possible, PokerStars just gives away money!" or something like that 'o)

So, here is my crack at disproving Mel's flimsy claim:

A 9-man team will fill one table at LHE $200/$400.

They will play every hand in a manner that will guarantee a flop. As long as there is a flop at this limit, the Max rake and Max VPPs will be reached. The team can then play the hand in a completely reasonable non-robotic manner.

Since the team is a homogenous group, we can focus on one player from the team and see if that one player can profit...if yes, the team profits. If no, the scheme is a loser:

At this level, the rake/hand will be $5; thus each player pays $0.556 in rake per hand. Each hand will earn 3 VPPs per player.

In order to earn every possible Milestone bonus, a player must earn 3M VPPs; thus 1M hands must be played in the proscribed manner.

The player will pay $555,555.56 in rake over the 1M hands.

The player will receive $128k in milestone bonuses.

The player will be able to purchase Sixty $4000 bonuses totaling $240k.

The player's expected value is $128k + $240k -($555k) = -($187k)



Coming from another angle:

An SNE earns 5 FPPs per VPP. One must earn 3M VPPs in one year to receive every Milestone Bonus. Earning 3M VPPs will result in 15M available FPPs. With 15M FPPs one can purchase Sixty $4000 bonuses. The total bonus cash one can receive in one year when earning 15M FPPs is $368k. This makes 1FPP worth $0.0245.

Our player on the team is earning 3VPPs/hand; thus 15FPPs/hand. This is equivalent to $0.3675/hand. But, the player is paying $0.5556/hand in rake.


What about different limits?

Let's try to keep the rake low and VPPs high. At a 6-max LHE table, there is a $2 rake if the pot reaches $40...if the pot stays under $70, then the rake remains $2. PokerStars gives 2VPPs for a pot that is raked $2 on 6-max tables. Let our team play 6-max $10/$20 always keeping the pot between $40 and $69.

Using the above:

An SNE earns 5 FPPs per VPP. One must earn 3M VPPs in one year to receive every Milestone Bonus. Earning 3M VPPs will result in 15M available FPPs. With 15M FPPs one can purchase Sixty $4000 bonuses. The total bonus cash one can receive in one year when earning 15M FPPs is $368k. This makes 1FPP worth $0.0245.

Our player on the team is earning 2VPPs/hand; thus 10FPPs/hand. This is equivalent to $0.245/hand. But, the player is paying $0.333/hand in rake.


In summary, PokerStars will not ever give more in bonuses than they take in rake. To earn money, one must take at least some money from another player.

I do not explain where I get most of my VPP/FPP/Rake numbers above as they have been explained before. If I moved to fast over something let me know, or check out these resources:

http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/rake/
http://www.pokerstars.com/fpp/

[MellowYellow]

Just read this after already replying to a similar post you made about the chinese team, but yeah I realized last night that before when I crunched some numbers and found you can make more in bonuses than you pay in rake, that is when you are playing against other opponents that are looser than you and they generate the majority of the rake for you, if it is only you and your team, so basically it is JUST you since the whole 10 player team could be thought of as just you with one Bankroll you would get smoked for sure, you are right.

BUT, are you sure that that first limit has a $5 rake?  I dont have PokerStars with me right now, but Ive watched some of the nosebleed sections before and Ive never seen the rake pass $3 even at super high stakes, did it recnently change to a $5 rake?

[huge_yakman]

Pot Limit (PL) and No Limit (NL)
$.01/$.02 to $25.00/$50.00
Number of players               Rake per Pot                             Max Rake
2-3                                  $0.05 for each $1.00 in Pot             $1.00
4-5                                  $0.05 for each $1.00 in Pot             $2.00
6-9                                  $0.05 for each $1.00 in Pot             $3.00

$100/$200 and higher
Number of players               Rake per Pot                             Max Rake
2-3                                  $1.00 for each $100 in Pot                  $2.00
4-10                                $1.00 for each $100 in Pot                 $5.00

[MellowYellow]

wow.. i wonder how long thats been going on, Ive definitely watched the high stakes tables here and there throughout the years just for fun, maybe it was always a short handed game or something.  Ive never noticed over $3.

Anyway then if the team was going for it, they probably would have just sat in a .5/1 NL table or something, theres no real reason to sit in a huge table to do it, all they have to do is generate like what  a $50 pot or so to get max rake and max VPPs given out.  But like I said, I posted in the other thread, even with a $3 rake its a loser.