77 good flop, fold or shove?

[Deadmoney]

Dear All,

UTAC

PokerStars GAME #643011712001474:  HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.5) - 2008/10/04 - 09:54:04 (ET)
Table 'Cake_ Pebble Beach 11712' 6-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Dran*** ($50.95 in chips)
Seat 2: The*** ($101.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Bill*** ($25.80 in chips)
Seat 8: Denv*** ($85.60 in chips)
Seat 9: Boot*** ($51.75 in chips)
Seat 10: deadmunny ($105.30 in chips)
deadmunny: posts small blind $0.25
Dran***: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to deadmunny [ ]
The***: folds
Bill***: raises $1.25 to $1.75
Denv***: folds
Boot***: folds
deadmunny: calls $1.50
Dran***: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
deadmunny: checks
Bill***: bets $4.00
deadmunny:.............?


This is tricky for me these spots, he is not sht enough to shove raise PF (IMHO) and 77 seems to good to muck, on the flop he makes a solid PSB, do I give him credit for a hand or shove this?... a raise is gonna commit me if he raises me back/shoves ........so whats the play?


Regards david

[Coughy_boy]

You missed.  Fold.  Try again.

3:1 favorite or 6:1 dog situation.  You'll win 44% +/-, it costs 46% (getting 28:24 on a shove).  Hardly worth the effort of a coin flip, unless he folds too much.

[Tony]

He's so short here Dave, I'd just muck this preflop.  Small pairs are very difficult to play OOP and he's not deep enough to set-mine profitably.

As played I think you have two options.  Either check/call the flop and probably give up to a decent bet on the turn.  Or alternatively just check-raise and fold to a shove, provided you know he's not going to be doing this with a hand you're ahead of.  You're not committed if you know you're beat.  Maybe you can min-raise the flop or maybe 2.5x to $10?

[Coughy_boy]

check/call the flop and probably give up to a decent bet on the turn. 

??? 

[Tony]

Coughy, you don't think your hand is too strong to fold on the flop?  You just give up here?

[Coughy_boy]

I'm totally absorbed by table image and psychology right now.  You'd have to prove to me that check and call is a good play at any point in any hand.

[Tony]

I didn't say it was a great spot or that I would like having to do it in this situation (bear in mind my advice was actually to fold it preflop, and this hand is a good example of why).  I just think given that you have called and his EP range probably consists of mainly high cards, folding on the flop is rather weak.  Given that he's short, if he's missed the flop he may well just check it down in position, particularly if he has an ace-high hand because he has showdown value.

Or look at it another way.  If you're calling with this hand preflop, what kind of flop are you looking for?

[CHARADES]

The guy has a 9 or a 6.
You either fold or go all-in.
You can't possibly know which he has, impossible.
It's either fold and regroup or put him to the test.
there is no exact answer on this one.
personally I fold.
he could have Ax , who knows.
The choices remain the same.
Hey I am quite pleased I have joined in this type conversation.
It's a wierd balance cos all my experience is sit n go live play
Whilst most of you guys it's on line ring play.
Fascinating.
let's see if I get any answers right.........LOL!

[Tony]

Good to have you joining in with some the hand history threads Bob   Play in the early levels of a tournament is very similar to ring game play, so it won't be time wasted.

[CHARADES]

Thank you Tony.
I've not joined in much before because I felt a little out if my depth. (still do a bit)
I can't work out the complicated math like some of you guys.
I have the brain power to learn but I have enough poker  stuff running right round my head at this juncture in time.
I'm interested to see if any of my answers are right.
It can only help my play (and maybe others on here).
In any event, I am bound to learn more one way or another.

[SlowJoe]

He could have an over pair.  He could have over cards.  He could be betting out because you showed weakness.
I would call and try to check it down.  I would not call a turn bet.

[Deadmoney]

Results in white below Bob,

he had JJ, but I got lucky and hit an 8 on the turn and a 5 n river for runner runner str8

[CHARADES]

So you went all-in?

[Deadmoney]

Yea I did,.......... and sucked out on the poor B**tard

Regards David