villian overbets flop

[lowraise]

OK villian is 40/25/5 but not over enough hands to make judgements. I was just wondering what range of cards you can put him on with the overbet on the flop:

PokerStars Game #20848148702:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/10/01 16:59:18 ET
Table 'Alinda' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: lowraise ($17.20 in chips)
Seat 2: eira2 ($4.45 in chips)
Seat 4: sünfos ($4.75 in chips)
Seat 5: salsawil ($3.85 in chips)
Seat 6: john-doe_i ($10.50 in chips)
sünfos: posts small blind $0.05
salsawil: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lowraise [ ]
john-doe_i: folds
lowraise: raises $0.30 to $0.40
eira2: folds
sünfos: folds
salsawil: raises $0.30 to $0.70
lowraise: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [ ]
salsawil: bets $2
lowraise: ?

[Coughy_boy]

I dunno.  It's like he's playing at random.  You're getting 3:2 on a push, but you probably don't have more than the 9 flush outs and the one for the back door.  He'd have to be drunk to fold, IMO, so just flip a coin.

[Deadmoney]

JJ-AA or AK, he did 3bet PF....as to the play your almost never drawing dead and aside from the obvious when you call with a suited connector like this, what flop are we looking for?

I shove here, esp him being so short

Regards David

[Tony]

Mmm, to be honest I fold to the preflop reraise.  It's only a min-raise, but even so you're getting terrible odds to call to hit a big flop, and as you discovered you can't even shove as a semibluff because your fold equity is non-existent.  He's got most of his stack in here, he's not folding.

As played I fold to the flop bet.  If you shove here you're almost certainly just getting your money in as a dog.

[Deadmoney]

As played I fold to the flop bet.  If you shove here you're almost certainly just getting your money in as a dog.

You think so Tony? the only hand that would make me a a dog is no?


Regards David

[Tony]

Dave you're right when you say you're not a BIG dog, but you're still a dog.  The point of shoving with draws is that your fold equity combined with the equity from your draw, is sufficient to make shoving +EV.  But shoving when you know you'll be called by an overpair or a better draw is just getting your money in with the worst of it, in other words you're just losing money.  At least that's my take on it, do you think hero has a chance of getting villain to fold?

You often don't need much fold equity to make a semibluff shove profitable, but here he's got most of his stack in and made a big overbet on the flop, so I think your fold equity is zilch.  If the preflop raise had just been called and villain had then min-raised the flop, or the effective stacks were larger, then a semibluff shove may well have been a good idea.

[Coughy_boy]

I think you guys might be missing that he knows he's shortstacked.  So he could have almost any two KTo+ IMO, even QTo.

I don't play 56s that way PF, so I can't comment about that.

But I'm not looking to fold here.  If I do put it in as a dog, it wouldn't be the first time.

[Deadmoney]

Another point Chris, that I always do is:

When facing a reraise/3bet Preflop to always check my Ops stack size..... I love playing suited connectors/one gappers sml PP's (88 to call is about the threshold for me) but If I have raised and am reraised against anything less than 80BB, its a fold because long term its a bad move and in fact 80BB is loose...... but then I cant play less than about 25 VPIP it bores me shitless


Regards David

[lowraise]

Thanks guys, I folded due to the lack of money left behind and he is pot commited and it would all end up in anyway. I was playing speculatively with the call of the min reraise as I felt I would get the money back + a bit more if I hit 2 pair.

My main thoughts (and reason for the post) were what would he min raise with having a stack of 38BB and then overbet the flop? I thought it might be a medium pocket pair scared of being out drawn. I would of thought any paint cards and pairs would be in his range as a short stack but then noticed his stats and thought they were quite laggy. He hadn't taken a beat to his stack and seemed to be playing with a short stack from the start.

[Deadmoney]

Dave you're right when you say you're not a BIG dog, but you're still a dog.  The point of shoving with draws is that your fold equity combined with the equity from your draw, is sufficient to make shoving +EV.  But shoving when you know you'll be called by an overpair or a better draw is just getting your money in with the worst of it, in other words you're just losing money.  At least that's my take on it, do you think hero has a chance of getting villain to fold?

You often don't need much fold equity to make a semibluff shove profitable, but here he's got most of his stack in and made a big overbet on the flop, so I think your fold equity is zilch.  If the preflop raise had just been called and villain had then min-raised the flop, or the effective stacks were larger, then a semibluff shove may well have been a good idea.

Tony, Yes our FE is zilch, but are we not about even money against an Overpair, coupled that he is short isn't it right to "gamble" here?

Regards David

[Tony]

Tony, Yes our FE is zilch, but are we not about even money against an Overpair, coupled that he is short isn't it right to "gamble" here?

Well, assuming you have 9 outs you're about 35% with two cards to come, so you're not really even money.  You have a backdoor straight draw too so that might give you 10 outs, making about 38%.  You'll have to stick it into Pokerstove to see what it really is, but I don't think you're going to be close to 50% to be honest.

[Coughy_boy]

Also running 6's, running 5's, running 56, 65.  Might add half an out.  Total of 10.5 maybe.

[Tony]

Thinking about this again Dave, it really comes down what hand range you think your opponent is betting the flop with.  I mean, I'm assuming the large bet after a min three bet = big pair.  But if I'm wrong and you could include hands like AK and AQ when he bets the flop, then your 5 and 6 are both outs and you can commit.  Maybe I was giving him too much credit.

There are also image benefits to getting it all in even if you do happen to be losing, since you're not giving up very much and it shows he can't bet you out of pots easily.