bet in to on flop after pfr - your line?

[lowraise]

villian was 12/12 after 25 hands so not much to tell at this moment

PokerStars Game #20755496494:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/09/28 5:03:20 ET
Table 'Ostara' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: pangelaaa ($10.70 in chips)
Seat 2: 1900-YuMmY ($17.75 in chips)
Seat 3: lowraise ($13.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Wieger1980 ($19.50 in chips)
Wieger1980: posts small blind $0.05
pangelaaa: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lowraise [ ]
1900-YuMmY: calls $0.10
lowraise: raises $0.40 to $0.50
Wieger1980: folds
pangelaaa: calls $0.40
1900-YuMmY: calls $0.40
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pangelaaa: bets $1.10
1900-YuMmY: folds
lowraise: ?

[Tony]

Well, first of all I don't fold unless he's a total nit who you just know won't bet with a pair on the board unless he has a piece of it.  This will often be a lower pocket pair or a worse jack, so you could easily be ahead.  He did bet into TWO opponents OOP though, which does show strength.  You have position so I'd just call and re-evaluate on the turn.  There are loads of cards you don't want to see on the turn (K, T, 9, any spade) which he could double barrel, but I don't see another way to play it.

Does anyone think a raise is better here?

[Deadmoney]

Hi Chris,

I rarely if ever disagree with Tony here,  but this IMHO is a clear Raise OR Fold, ....... calling is the worst here, There is NO card that will come on the turn that improves your hand, therefore calling and re-evaluating is not good, as you face a possible turn bet with no improvement of hand and still not knowing where you are.

For me its 50/50 whether I raise or Fold,

Regards David

[Tony]

But what does raising achieve Dave?  If he has a queen here, do you think he'll shove?  I doubt it.  He'll just call and either c/r the turn or value bet the river if you check behind on the turn.  So you don't gain information on the flop either way.  And if he has a hand like 99 or J7s he'll just fold, which you don't want  when he's drawing to few outs and might keep bluffing at you/"value betting" incorrectly.

The reason I was advocating a call was that I think folding is weak with top-two pair top kicker in position, but raising doesn't seem to achieve anything.  It just allows him to get away from a worse hand when he's beat, and builds a pot hero might find difficult to get away from when we're behind.

You're right about the numerous bad turn cards as I mentioned above too, but bear in mind these cards may well be scare cards for him.  He's the one out of position, and he'll need a good read that you'll fold to double barrel if a scare-card hits and he has a marginal hand.  I think much of the time you're good here, and he'll be the one with the pressure on him on the turn.

I'm sure Harrington would say we should raise some percentage of the time, but I would have thought the majority of the time we should be calling, no?

[Deadmoney]

mmmmmmmmm what about raising and take the free river card?...... thing is are we just gonna call it down to the river?

Thoughts?

Regards David

[Tony]

mmmmmmmmm what about raising and take the free river card?.....

But if he has a hand like 99 or a worse J, you're not actually getting a free card, you're giving him one.  Since you're ahead you want to charge him if he's willing to call.  You also don't want him to fold if he'll keep betting the worst hand, which he might do if you raise.

Alternatively if you're behind to a queen, you don't want to raise since you're drawing thin.

thing is, are we gonna call it down to the river?

Well, against certain players I think you have to.  I'm not saying that's an easy thing to do, but it's a necessary play versus the kind of players who will three barrel you unless you raise and tell them you have a queen.  Bear in mind also that the cost of raising the flop and calling a river bet is around the same as the cost of calling down.

I agree that a raise may well let you get to a showdown.  But let's say he calls your flop raise and the turn is checked through.  Now he pots the river.  You have a difficult decision and have to guess whether he'd bet a worse hand for value (probably not).  But notice that a flop raise followed by a river bet will create a similar sized pot to just calling down.  The difference is that just calling down has the potential to induce bets from worse hands, whereas raising the flop is only likely to be called by hands that beat us (unless he's very bad), or allow him to get away from the worst hand.

Obviously you can't just call down everyone in this situation, and the default (whether you raise the flop and check behind on the turn, or just call the flop and turn) is probably to fold the river to a large bet.  I doubt most players will value bet the river with a worse hand.  But there are definitely some opponents who would three barrel and rep a queen here until you raise, and you get more value from them by letting them do so.

It's interesting, Lowraise recently posted a link to a 2+2 thread where Leatherass is in "The Well", and he talks about this.  He was asked how he deals with the hyper aggression of the LAGs at the higher stakes, given that he plays a 21/16 TAG style.  His reply was that he will call them down more with marginal hands, even hands as weak as second pair.

The big problem with this approach though, is that it makes your decisions more difficult.  If you think your raise will give you reliable information about your opponent's hand, then raising makes the hand easier to play.

For example if he calls the raise out of position and he's not really bad, then you're probably losing to a queen or an overpair.  In which case raising is obviously better than calling down.  But if he'll only fold hands you dominate but bluff unless you show strength by raising, calling down must be better.

I'm kind of still undecided myself to be honest, I don't really like either option

[Deadmoney]

whereas raising the flop is only likely to be called by hands that beat us (unless he's very bad), or allow him to get away from the worst hand.


This was kinda my point, if he folds a worse hand here weak J for example, why is his an issue? Yes in a perfect world we want to just call him down with KJ, but I have no problem taking it down here as later decisions could be troublesome, I guess thats why I advocate a raise

Regards David

[lowraise]

Great replies guys and this is why I posted it. I thought about how I would play this hand against different opponents at this point especially after reading a few things recently (including the reference to Leatherass on 2+2). I won't tell you what I did or how it went as I don't think it matters at the moment, I think this is a situational decision and either calling or raising is fine depending on a number of factors (table image of you and your opponent, thinking about setting things up for the long term, getting info, etc). You both answer some of the issues it raises though especially as we don't have to much info on tem after 25 hands.

So thinking about the situation

i) what is your play with a LAG?
ii) what range of hands are you putting both LAGs and TAGs on?
iii) does you play change if you have been cbetting a lot?
iv) does you play change if you've been caught raising lite pre flop recently?
v) does you play change if you know the villian will semi bluff multi draws?
vii) does you play change if there was only you and the villian in the hand and not 3 people?
vii) does you play change if you're playing at higher limits and where does that chnge occur?

I've been trying to put my opponents on hands (in tricky situations like this) and thinking hands through alot more recently so I think this will help my game develop a bit more so thank you in advance. Also, if either of you know of similar issues explained in books like ryan fee, harirngton or on sites like Stox let me know so I can look them up and maybe develop a bit more.

[Tony]

This was kinda my point, if he folds a worse hand here weak J for example, why is his an issue?

Because you lose a lot of value if he'll bet it again?  I can see why raising simplifies the play of the hand from hero's point of view, and that's not to be sniffed at.  But versus someone who might bet the turn (and/or river) with a worse hand, raising can't be as +EV as calling to induce, can it?

I think Chris is right, and the best play must be dependent upon the bettor's tendencies.  Versus LAGs I think you do have to call them down a fair amount (which is one reason why playing against LAGs is so difficult ).  In fact Leatherass was specifically talking about LAGs in that thread I mentioned.  Versus less aggressive players maybe raising is best, provided you think the opponent's actions will give you enough information to play the rest of the hand correctly.

Mmmm, not sure, something to chew on...

[Coughy_boy]

My approach is to ask myself "How often would he do this if I'm ahead here?"  In other words, "How often am I ahead here?"  It becomes very player dependent.

But most of the time, in this situation, I have another problem.  Because if I am ahead here, what does he have?  If I'm ahead he might easily have or .  It's possible he has something like 88 or 99, but I think even in those spots where I am ahead, he probably has quite a bit of equity.

So against most opponents here, I fold to his flop bet.

[jabit]

This was kinda my point, if he folds a worse hand here weak J for example, why is his an issue? Yes in a perfect world we want to just call him down with KJ, but I have no problem taking it down here as later decisions could be troublesome, I guess thats why I advocate a raise

This was my thinking from the start. This isn't a hand that we are likely to make much money from. Betting OOP into the preflop raiser is very strong on this board. But it is also a scary, bluffable board, and we have a hand, so folding isn't good here. If your opponent doesn't have trip queens or better, then you are not making mcuh more money in this hand anyway.
You don't want a weaker J to fold, but even if he is holding it, we are going to have a hard time extracting value from it. Suppose we call, and he checks the turn. Can we bet here? We will probably force the weak jack to fold if we do, but if we check it through, we are asking to be bet into on the river. Are we calling a river bet? (probably). What if we call the flop and he makes a half pot bet on the turn? are we calling this? and then the same on the river?

Particularly at $10NL where opponents don't tend to be particularly sophisticated I would just make a small raise, and if opp continues to show aggression i'll be done with it. Maybe I'll call a reasonable sized river bet if the turn is checked through.

Also, the way I am trying to think about poker at the moment at these stakes is that I have a big edge against most of these players, so I just avoid difficult spots. If my opponent wants to make a sophisticated play, and bluffs me off of second best hand, good luck to him. Because I have a big edge, I will win it back anyway. But being drawn into a big pot that I know I am losing is likely to tilt me and cost me even more than the potential win on this hand. Obviously as we move up the stakes and the winnings become more cutthoat this wont cut it. But for the time being, this attitude seems to work for me.

[Deadmoney]

Because you lose a lot of value if he'll bet it again?  I can see why raising simplifies the play of the hand from hero's point of view, and that's not to be sniffed at.  But versus someone who might bet the turn (and/or river) with a worse hand, raising can't be as +EV as calling to induce, can it?

But we are not gonna know that are we? .....This type of hand, I dont mind ending it now, ..and avoid the sticky siuation

Regards David

[Coughy_boy]

I think it's good to consider the possibility of a weaker jack, but I hate to engage in wishful thinking at NL, so I wouldn't make that a huge part of his range.  And with a weaker jack, we'll be chopping 12% and he'll outdraw me maybe 4%.

In cash games, I play conservatively with regard to position, play aggressively when conditions are favorable, and attempt to exploit weaknesses (with maybe 15% semi-random play mixed in).  Obviously, if this guy will do this with air, or with two outs, you want to call.  But I would need a strong belief.

No one can run me over at full ring, so I don't mind giving up a bit here and there.  Playing this short, there may be better arguments for playing back.