Size these bets for me please

[Deadmoney]

Dear All,

This is not a Quiz/test 

UTAC

Hand 1

PokerStars GAME #630011464000476:  HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.5/$1) - 2008/10/21 - 10:46:17 (ET)
Table 'Cake_ Chelsea 11464' 6-max Seat #10 is the button
Seat 1: verd*** ($79.50 in chips)
Seat 2: deadmunny ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 3: Dran*** ($83.00 in chips)
Seat 8: 37ch*** ($9.40 in chips)
Seat 9: Bast*** ($122.45 in chips)
Seat 10: DimS*** ($58.00 in chips)
verd***: posts small blind $0.50
deadmunny: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to deadmunny [ ]
Dran***: calls $1.00
37ch***: folds
Bast***: folds
DimS***: folds
verd***: calls $0.50
deadmunny: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ].....Pot $3
verd***: checks
deadmunny: bets $3.00
Dran***: folds
verd***: calls $3.00
*** TURN *** [ ] []......Pot $9
verd***: checks
deadmunny: bets $9.00
verd***: calls $9.00
*** RIVER *** [ ] [] ........Pot $27
verd***: checks
deadmunny: bets ..............



Hand 2

PokerStars GAME #630011406001203:  HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.5) - 2008/10/21 - 11:21:40 (ET)
Table 'Cake_ Pebble Beach 11406' 6-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: sari*** ($53.85 in chips)
Seat 2: Flyi*** ($90.07 in chips)
Seat 3: jenx*** ($43.65 in chips)
Seat 8: deadmunny ($80.75 in chips)
Seat 9: city*** ($121.45 in chips)
Seat 10: zapp*** ($57.90 in chips)
city***: posts small blind $0.25
zapp***: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to deadmunny [ ]
sari***: folds
Flyi***: raises $1.25 to $1.75
jenx***: calls $1.75
deadmunny: calls $1.75
city***: folds
zapp***: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]........Pot $6
Flyi***: bets $4.50
jenx***: folds
deadmunny: calls $4.50
*** TURN *** [ ] [].......pot $15
Flyi***: bets $9.50
deadmunny: raises $12.25 to $21.75
Flyi***: calls $12.25
*** RIVER *** [ ] []........ pot $$58.50
Flyi***: checks
deadmunny: bets ............. 





Regards David

[Coughy_boy]

Flop:  Your position sucks, the spades and the over suck.  A strong reverse implied odds situation.  I'll bet $5. 

Turn:  Now you've got position.  The check and call is strong.  The card didn't help, as could be predicted.  Value bet time for CB, $4 as played.

River:  Ca-ching, 1/2 pot.



Flop:  He may take pressure, and I'm armed to the teeth, min-raise.

Turn:  Smooth call.

River:  Push, as played.

[Tony]

Dave, I really can't give advice here, since I'm positive that bet-sizing on the river is one of the weakest areas of my game.

However, a few days ago I watched a video by Baluga Whale (respected 2+2 high stakes pro).  His advice for river betting at the low stakes was this: "Whatever you normally bet on the river, double it."

[verstehen]

1st hand looks good.  I think you can safely bet quite a bit on the river, unless he's called down with just a naked flush draw (in which case he's not paying anything and bet sizing is irrelevant) this seems like a pretty strong hand that isn't folding getting 2.5:1 or better. 

2nd hand I hate the flat call on the flop.  Raise and he'll often say OMG DRAW and ship it in.  I'm not sure why you're raising when the flush draw comes, if he has the flush he's obviously not folding and if he doesn't you may chase out the Ax hands that want to pay you off. 

[verstehen]

However, a few days ago I watched a video by Baluga Whale (respected 2+2 high stakes pro).  His advice for river betting at the low stakes was this: "Whatever you normally bet on the river, double it."

Totally agree.  And I was just looking over "No Limit Hold Em Theory and Practice" again and ran across this:

CONCEPT 1: WHEN IN DOUBT BET MORE.  p. 244

[Deadmoney]

Dave, I really can't give advice here, since I'm positive that bet-sizing on the river is one of the weakest areas of my game.

However, a few days ago I watched a video by Baluga Whale (respected 2+2 high stakes pro).  His advice for river betting at the low stakes was this: "Whatever you normally bet on the river, double it."

Yea I am sure I am weak here too,

1st hand I bet $18 he calls and flips 53o????? Total fish


2nd hand....there was a point in the hand that I thought I was beat...AA/AQ?....anyway I bet 1/2 pot $30 and he calls and flips


Both hands I am sure they would have called more, I will be looking at this more

Thanks all

Regards David

[Coughy_boy]

Total fish

I think you may be missing an important point here.  At first I wanted to say you had him out-classed.  But I think the truth is:

You've built your game, your strategy, around defeating a particular type of opponent.  When an opponent of that type sits down with you, it is only a matter of time until you have all the money (less the rake, of course).

But when a different type of opponent sits down, the result is less certain.  That doesn't mean the second guy is a better player; he just plays differently.

Lately, I've been trying to spend about 15% of my session focused on one specific opponent, trying to figure out what he's thinking.  Notice, I'm not trying to figure out what he's holding.  This is one area where live poker is far superior, IMO, because you can tell if he's pausing to think, or pausing to talk to someone, etc.

What I'm finding is that some people have absolutely no clue why I play the way I do.  Literally!  All my efforts to act precisely, efficiently, with timing!  And yet these same people are capable of playing well and coming out a winner many times.

So I think it's possible that one style, one strategy, can dominate another, but have a lower long term EV than the strategy it dominates.  Like Amarillo Slim's paradox, AKo > JTs > 22 > AKo.

[poskid]

hand 1...at least $30 I want to overbet the pot here a lot since we are likely to get called.

hand 2...allin...Folding a flush here by him would be suicide getting 2-1 against most opps.  we get paid off alot here.

PK