Induced the bluff, But can I call?

[Deadmoney]

Dear All,

UTAC... Guy was running 40/6/2   over 186 hands, had just stacked off to a shortie with this hand and reloaded a few hands before.

Obviously I didnt have his stats whilst playing

PokerStars GAME #610011709000453:  HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.5) - 2008/09/01 - 18:32:04 (ET)
Table 'Cake_ Pebble Beach 11709' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Fast*** ($45.90 in chips)
Seat 2: Ride*** ($23.95 in chips)
Seat 3: deadmunny ($45.10 in chips)
Seat 8: magu*** ($36.05 in chips)
Seat 9: life*** ($50.00 in chips)
magu***: posts small blind $0.25
life***: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to deadmunny [ ]
Fast***: folds
Ride***: raises $1.25 to $1.75
deadmunny: folds
magu***: raises $3.50 to $5.25
life***: folds
Ride***: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [ ]
magu***: bets $0.50
Ride***: raises $5.75 to $6.25
magu***: calls $5.75
*** TURN *** [ ] []
magu***: checks
Ride***: bets $12.45 and is all-in
magu***: calls $12.45
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ride***: shows [ ] (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
magu***: mucks hand
Ride*** collected $46.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $48.40 | Rake $2.00
Board [ ]
Seat 1: Fast*** folded before Flop
Seat 2: Ride*** showed [ ] and won ($46.40) with Three of a Kind, Jacks
Seat 3: deadmunny folded before Flop
Seat 8: magu*** (small blind) mucked [ ]
Seat 9: life*** (big blind) folded before Flop



Ok, here is the hand................


<a href="http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=44320" target="_blank">http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/flash/replayer.swf?pokerhandid=44320</a>



Regards David

[jabit]

you are getting a little over 2:5 to 1.

Given how he played the last hand, he is likely to play that way if he hit any little piece of the board. I think you have to call.

[poskid]

Call.  

I would bet more on both the flop and turn though.  Against this type of opp and a drawy board you need to charge them.  Like you said you didnt have anything on him except for the call down with AQ but that should give you enough to know that you dont have to play coy with this guy.  Maximum value bet him to death please.

PK

[verstehen]

Hard to fold here... yes he may have some rivered 2 pair or a slowplayed monster but given his donkish image I think it's a call.  A few suggestions:

1. Raise more pre-flop.  You have a huge hand in a 4-way pot OOP, raise more than PSB here to compensate for bad position. 

2. Check turn.  If he bets a smallish amount, raise all in.  If he checks behind, you're not facing an 80BB shove on the river.  If he hugely overshoves river you can fold without having committed yourself completely to a one-pair hand. 

[Deadmoney]

I would bet more on both the flop and turn though.  Against this type of opp and a drawy board you need to charge them.

Well this was my thinking PK, on the flop it was $4.50 into a $6 pot & $12 into a $15 pot?on the turn still not enough?

Raise more pre-flop.  You have a huge hand in a 4-way pot OOP, raise more than PSB here to compensate for bad position. 

................Good point, need to adjust for that...so used to hitting "pot" PF

2. Check turn.  If he bets a smallish amount, raise all in.  If he checks behind, you're not facing an 80BB shove on the river.  If he hugely overshoves river you can fold without having committed yourself completely to a one-pair hand.

I was pretty sure he was drawing, your above quote Adam, hmmmmm , you think this is right? with a strong Overpair to a drawy board to give the free card?  something like AQ/KQ/QJs I may check TPGK type thing........Thoughts?


Thanks All

Regards David

[verstehen]

It's certainly debatable.  But since you're not sure you want to call an all-in on the river with an overpair, checking the turn avoids that situation.  You can:

1. Check-call turn, check-fold river unimproved if you think he wouldn't bet with less than queens up

2. Check-raise all-in turn, avoiding any river decision and probably getting a calling from top pair hands

3. Check-fold turn if he makes some huge overbet and you're sure he has you beat

[poskid]

I would bet more on both the flop and turn though.  Against this type of opp and a drawy board you need to charge them.

Well this was my thinking PK, on the flop it was $4.50 into a $6 pot & $12 into a $15 pot?on the turn still not enough?

On a board this drawy betting pot on the turn allows us to get the money in quicker.  Also being OOP it shouldnt look suspicious because we should be betting more when OOP anyway.

Look at what would have happened if you bet pot on turn you bet 6 and if our opp calls the pot becomes 18 we now have effectively $41.50 behind.  If we then bet 3/4 pot we bet about 14 into the pot if we get a call again then the river becomes academic.  We have 27.50 left behind in a $46 pot.  We should now check/call inducing bluffs due to the draws not hitting and the oportunity that opp has a lesser made hand.  IMO this is a much better pot control situation when OOP.

PK

[robsmith82]

Betting the turn is fine, but you can absolutely check for the reasons verstehen has mentioned, its totally standard.  I often checkraise the turn with an overpair thats not too vulnerable to overcards falling, as getting floated is such a popular play, its a great way to defend against this.

[robsmith82]

I played a really interesting hand last night.

I had KK in EP, raised the std 4BB and get called by a good, thinking regular from the CO who can be very aggressive and attacks weakness.

Flop Comes

Q74r

I decide to check.  Now I dont usually check here, but theres a lot of reasons to.

• I am out of position
• I am against a player who I rate at least as good as me
• He often has a medium/small pair that I dont mind giving a free card
• Theres only 1 overcard to worry about
• If we get all in I'm often behind
• He's aggressive and I wnt him to bluff with weaker hands

So I check, he bets small, about $1.25, and I decide to call. The small bet is often a good bluff on such a dry board as when I check I'm often just giving up.  So I decide to call and check again on the turn.

The turn comes another Q, putting 2 clubs on the board also.

One of the worst cards for me really.  I take a bit of time to think things through, and decide checking again is still the best way to go.  Betting and getting raised here would be a horrible spot.  I decide to check, and possibly check-raise or check-call if he bets.

He bets $1.50, even smaller (relative to the pot) than his previous bet.

Now I am really suspicious.  If I just call, I might face a big bet on the river that I probably have to call as I have massively underrepped my hand. Its also far too weak to fold.  I decide to raise. I think I can raise here and very safely fold to a push.  I really dont mind winning the pot right now, playing this guys out of position is not fun. 

I raise to $5, and my opponent calls.

What is he calling with there? My line has ended up being extremely strong.  Check call flop check raise turn is often a monster, even though I was the PFR.  My opponent must realise this, but still calls. He is either wanting me to bet into him on the river, or leaving himself the option of getting away/extracting more value on the river.

The river is the .  Another awful card really. I really feel like I am behind here. I check and my opponent overbets the pot for the rest of his stack.  An easy fold in the end I think.

This hand really got me thinking.  I'm going to spend some more time looking at it tonight, maybe running some equities in pokerstove.

My biggest mistake was not leaving earlier when I noticed I had a good regular on my left.  Theres nothing like good table selection to improve your overall winrate.  It took another couple of preflop 3-bets from this guys before I realised that even if I was slightly better than him, his position far outweighed any other factors.  I left and opened up another table.

Just another example of where inducing bluffs can go horribly wrong (although I think I'm still happy with my play...)

[Coughy_boy]

You misplayed the flop, IMO.  This is obviously a reverse implied odds situation; the longer you wait, the more your EV shrinks.  As for calling, flip a coin.

On the other hand, he seems completely unaware (playing in a vacuum), so I'd lean to a call.

you are getting a little over 2:5 to 1.

2.25 (70:31).  It might be an even money bet that pays 2.25.

[verstehen]

Rob did you consider leading the turn?  You're sort of turning your hand into a bluff but you can safely get away from this hand if raised (or even flat-called) for the same price (or less) than your check-raise play.  C/r pretty much turns your hand into a bluff anyway, you're repping trip queens or maybe a small set and he's calling anyway so you must be beat on the river. 

If anyone's read Harrington on Cash Games 2, there's a great interview with Bobby Hoff (old-time cash game player).  He says KK is absolutely the worst possible hand to have OOP in a raised pot and I'm starting to think he's right.   

[Coughy_boy]

Yeah, with the blinds and button coming at me, I'm always thinking the same thing "I sure hope I don't get KK here."   "Woe is me, if I look down and see KK." 

[robsmith82]

Rob did you consider leading the turn?  You're sort of turning your hand into a bluff but you can safely get away from this hand if raised (or even flat-called) for the same price (or less) than your check-raise play.  C/r pretty much turns your hand into a bluff anyway, you're repping trip queens or maybe a small set and he's calling anyway so you must be beat on the river. 

If anyone's read Harrington on Cash Games 2, there's a great interview with Bobby Hoff (old-time cash game player).  He says KK is absolutely the worst possible hand to have OOP in a raised pot and I'm starting to think he's right.   

I certainly did consider it V, but donking the turn is something I rarely do with made hands, only when a scre card falls and I'm on a total bluff agaist a weak tight.

I think Checkraising has a much better chance of getting a fold though.  This type of player could easily call a bet in position, or even raise, reading my donk as a bluff.   Checkraising is much more consistent with how I would sometime play a monster here, and I felt it had the most chance of working.  Also his call of the checkraise is FAR more telling than his call of the lead out.  It makes the river easier to play.