Turns Top F/H...your move?

[Deadmoney]

Dear All,

How do you play this?...........UTAC

PokerStars GAME #609011480001492:  HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.5/$1) - 2008/08/31 - 12:49:43 (ET)
Table 'Cake_ Chelsea 11480' 6-max Seat #10 is the button
Seat 1: deadmunny ($178.95 in chips)
Seat 2: 7979*** ($91.40 in chips)
Seat 3: spru*** ($254.20 in chips)
Seat 8: boaz*** ($91.00 in chips)
Seat 9: DaEC*** ($152.11 in chips)
Seat 10: mobi*** ($47.40 in chips)
deadmunny: posts small blind $0.50
7979***: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to deadmunny [ ]
spru***: folds
boaz***: calls $1.00
DaEC***: calls $1.00
mobi***: folds
deadmunny: raises $6.00 to $7.00
7979***: folds
boaz***: folds
DaEC***: calls $6.00
*** FLOP *** [ ]
deadmunny: bets $8.00
DaEC***: calls $8.00
*** TURN *** [ ] []   ....... POT is $31
deadmunny............Check/Bet..how much?/Fold




Regards David

[Coughy_boy]

Well, you'd like to get all the money in, obviously.  If he has a big enough hand, a check raise would help you do that.

On the other hand, the board is real scary, and I could lay down a lot of hands if you really pressured me here.  He limped from CO and then called a big raise.  Why would he do that?  I think it's quite possible he still doesn't have any of the board, and will fold under pressure.

I think it's opponent dependent.  If you can count on him to bet, check.  But based only on this hand, I don't think you can count on that.  It might be fun to run post oak and see what happens.  Bet $1.

[poskid]

You made a strong PF raise followed by a weak flop bet.  Unfortunately there is no way you are taking his whole stack unless he's a) really strong or b) a mad dumbass because you're 150BB's deep here.  I was actually thinking something along the lines of CB here.  Except I would never min bet.  You lose all value in the hand since opp can call and make it even more difficult to get more money in on the river.  I think a 1/3-1/2 pot bet.  You already made 1 weak bet.  Another one is only going to make you look weaker while still getting value out of his calls.

The second option is that if you think he's one of these suspicious hero call type player then an overbet or full bet is probably best because he's going to put you on air more often and therefore call the big bet enough to make it worth it.

PK

[SlowJoe]

He obviously has KcJc, so I fold.

I Bet.  He called that flop with something.  Hopefully it was a flush draw.  If not, 1/2 pot bet gives calling odds on a back door flush and helps build the pot for a nice bet on the river.

[Coughy_boy]

I would never min bet.  You lose all value in the hand since opp can call

If he calls, we recover a lot of what we lost with a push on the river, n'est pas?

[cerealpoker]

He obviously has KcJc, so I fold.

I Bet.  He called that flop with something.  Hopefully it was a flush draw.  If not, 1/2 pot bet gives calling odds on a back door flush and helps build the pot for a nice bet on the river.

i agree for the same reasons.  i bet 15 dollars here, though check-raising isn't a bad play either.

[poskid]

If he calls, we recover a lot of what we lost with a push on the river, n'est pas?

We're too deep for this to work.  We would be shoving $137 into a $33 pot.  This is never getting called unless we're beat or villain is a dumbass.  Your bet sizing with a min bet leaves the pot lacking and gives away value.  How often do you really think our opp is coming over the top of us on this turn card?  It's going to be pretty rare.

PK

[Coughy_boy]

Your first level thinking is flawless, PK.  But, IMO, you're making it harder to get the stacks in.  The second thing you said in your first comment was essentially "forget about stacking off."  A self-fulfilling prophecy?

The river card will either improve his hand or it won't.  Most times it won't, and we'll be lucky to get $15 from this.  But what about the times it does?  He could make quads or a srt8 flush.  But what I'm shooting for here is boat over boat.  Will he fold second boat on the river?  Ever?  At 17:14, will he fold second boat?

Isn't your shot at $137 worth more than a $10 bet here?  What I'm most worried about is him getting away here.


"In most cases, for a slowplay to be correct, all of the following must be true:

1.  You must have a very strong hand.
2.  The free card or cheap card ... must have good possibilities of making them a second-best hand.
3.  That same free card must have little chance of making someone a better hand ...
4.  You must be sure you will drive other players out by showing aggression ...
5.  The pot must not yet be very large."

David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker, p. 144.

[Coughy_boy]

1/2 pot bet gives calling odds on a back door flush

That would be an AWFUL decision on his part.  Maybe not so much at 6 max, but absolutely AWFUL at full ring w/ deep stacks.

[poskid]

You apparently as usual have no idea what you're talking about.  I'm not thinking 1st level hence why I'm stating that our opp is unlikely to stack off.  Because the board is scary and the stacks are deep I'm using second level thinking to play my opponent's likely range.  Trying to get everything in should be our goal.  However doing this by driving large bets into a small/medium pot is not going to happen very often.  How about instead of being a prick.  You tell me what you think an average opp will stack off with on this board?  What I'm trying to state is that because it is less likely that your opp is going to stack off here that we need to get as much value from his range without blowing him off that range.  There are plenty of hands that will play a medium pot here and we need to not blow them up.  A min bet isnt a slow play it's an act to try and make you look like an idiot so hopefully that player will make a hasty bet over you.  This isnt always the best play.

I'm going to state this one time and then I'm probably done with this topic.  Your play is idiotic and not a single winning player on this site thinks it's right nor is it even a reasonable mixup play.  You crap out your range playing this way because the only time you are ever going to do it is when you are crushing the board.  Therefore you get less value then you normally would if you could make this play regularly to give it balance.  And if you play lots of pots this way you are the fish.

You're wrong and I'll never convince you of such so go about your life.

PK

[jabit]

This board is SCARY. despite DM's strength, he still only has the 3rd nuts. With a board like this, if the stacks are going in, that will happen almost regardless of what DM does here, because your opponent would also need to be wanting to stack off. So we don't need to worry about that so much.. We are more interested in extracting value here.

Anyone holding a , or is likely to call a reasonable sized bet  (maybe 1/2 pot) with deep stacks, drawing to the nut/second nut flush + a 1 outer to the royal is always hard to lay down. someone who has a 10, or maybe some kind of Queen or ace might be able to hang around at  this price.

The bottom line is, if they are not willing to call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn, you're not going to be able to make any money out of them on the river, anyway. (unluss they try to bluff the river, but I think that just betting for value will beat that in the long run).

[poskid]

This board is SCARY. despite DM's strength, he still only has the 3rd nuts. With a board like this, if the stacks are going in, that will happen almost regardless of what DM does here, because your opponent would also need to be wanting to stack off. So we don't need to worry about that so much.. We are more interested in extracting value here.

Anyone holding a , or is likely to call a reasonable sized bet  (maybe 1/2 pot) with deep stacks, drawing to the nut/second nut flush + a 1 outer to the royal is always hard to lay down. someone who has a 10, or maybe some kind of Queen or ace might be able to hang around at  this price.

The bottom line is, if they are not willing to call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn, you're not going to be able to make any money out of them on the river, anyway. (unluss they try to bluff the river, but I think that just betting for value will beat that in the long run).

Excellent reply...Thank you J-dog

PK

[Coughy_boy]

I'm using second level thinking to play my opponent's likely range. 

Dude, that's the first level, see Sklansky and Miller, No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice, p. 169.  And as I said, your thinking there is flawless.

The bottom line is, if they are not willing to call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn, you're not going to be able to make any money out of them on the river, anyway. (unluss they try to bluff the river, but I think that just betting for value will beat that in the long run).

Or unless the next card improves his hand!!

Anyone holding a , or is likely to call a reasonable sized bet  (maybe 1/2 pot) with deep stacks,

Dude, this is an AWFUL, AWFUL play, and I hope you don't do it.  With deep stacks, drawing to a flush (esp. needing four on the board) with a paired board is fool's gold.

[jabit]

my point is, if they are not going to call this turn bet, then they are not going to call ever.

how many hands can he have that will not call a turn bet, but will improve enough on the river to call a river bet?

or are you counting on him trying to bluff you off the pot?

Dude, this is an AWFUL, AWFUL play, and I hope you don't do it.  With deep stacks, drawing to a flush (esp. needing four on the board) with a paired board is fool's gold.

I'm not saying whether that is a good play or not. We want our opponents to make AWFUL, AWFUL plays. Give him the opportunity to do just that.

[jabit]

to make money off this hand the way you are playing it:

1. your opponent must hold at least 2 pair
2. you must check to him on the turn
3. your opponent must hit one of his approximately 4 outs (of course you wont know if this has happened or not)
4. you must check to him on the river, and hope he bets

[robsmith82]

I think Jabit has got the analysis down to a tee here.

I bet 1/2 to 2/3 pot on the turn for two reasons.

1. I want value here and now from much weaker hands
2. I want a bigger pot on the river so I can make a bigger size value bet, but it still being nicely proportional to the pot.

PK,

1st level thinking is thinking about what hands your opponent might have.  Coughy Boy got this right (about the only thing he did though...)



When you have a big hand, give yourself a chance to build a big pot.  you wont do this by making small bets earlier in the hand, you need to bet bigger and allow the pot to grow exponentially.  Dave, I thought your flop bet was far too small. 

[Coughy_boy]

3. your opponent must hit one of his approximately 4 outs (of course you wont know if this has happened or not)

This is the root of the disagreement.  If he is behind, he is either drawing dead, or drawing to ONE out.  ONE fr out.  And you guys WON'T give him credit for understanding where he is.

Granted, there is part of his range where he won't.  E.g. AT.

We want our opponents to make AWFUL, AWFUL plays.

But it's not that often that they do.  And when they do, it's not that often that we deserve the credit.

[jabit]

3. your opponent must hit one of his approximately 4 outs (of course you wont know if this has happened or not)

This is the root of the disagreement.  If he is behind, he is either drawing dead, or drawing to ONE out.  ONE fr out.  And you guys WON'T give him credit for understanding where he is.

ok, sorry just to clarify, I probably used the word "outs" incorrectly here.

what I meant to say was
3. your opponent must hit one of his approximately 4 cards which he thinks will make him a winning hand

[jabit]

If he is behind, he is either drawing dead, or drawing to ONE out.  ONE fr out.  And you guys WON'T give him credit for understanding where he is.

so, are we allowing him a free card to try to get him to impove his hand? or to induce the bluff? you seem to have changed tune here

The bottom line is, if they are not willing to call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn, you're not going to be able to make any money out of them on the river, anyway. (unluss they try to bluff the river, but I think that just betting for value will beat that in the long run).

Or unless the next card improves his hand!!

[Coughy_boy]

Or, maybe, just MAYBE, you are HEARING a different tune.