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 on: May 14, 2015, 05:51:24 am 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Coughy_boy
Assume the flop, your opponent has a 36% flush draw, the pot is 100, your stack is 120, and he has you covered.

Path 1:  you fold.  Outcome = 120.
Path 2:  you shove.  Outcome = .64*340 = 217.6.
Path 3:  you bet 40, and then 80 on the turn if you're still ahead.  Outcome = (.64*340) + (.2*80) = 233.6.

Path 3 is a 7.5% increase over path 2, due to outplaying your opponent.

 on: May 03, 2015, 05:46:39 am 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Coughy_boy
You actually have a short stack relative to the pot, so I think everyone is priced in against you.  So you can't get them to make an EV mistake on the flop.  I.e. even something like Qd Jc is getting the right odds.  I think.

So play for the small pot now when you don't have an edge, and shove a blank turn.  Fold the turn if you're sure you're beat, because you're drawing dead.

You might actually be drawing dead on the flop.  It happened to me ONE TIME, where I had 8d 2d and the other guy had 7d 4d and the flop came 3d 5d 6d  The Jd peeled and I folded.  (Not exact cards, but same principle.)  I guess the other guy had put me on the ace, so he moved me off my hand.

 on: January 16, 2015, 08:58:32 am 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Deadmoney
Dear All,
long time no see?
anyway I now play a weekly live game here in Jamaica and had this hand come up, now remember it is JA$113 to US$1.00 exchange rate , note this when I am talking bets etc.

Also the game is very well done ... two decks of cards, BB shuffles who passes deck to SB, who passes deck to button to cut then SB deals- so their is no hold up in play. Your buy-Ins are in $5000 stacks each , most players start with 1-2 stacks.....limit of 8 stacks, if you lose 8 stacks you leave or stay and watch, keeps it fun but not stupid money.

so without further ado,

blinds are $200/$100 and a player raises to $700 UTG, folds around to a decent player in the CO who calls , I am in one of the blinds with 7 Diamonds 5 Diamonds and call.

Flop comes K Diamonds, 9 Diamonds, 2 Diamonds

Original raiser bets a continuation $1500 into about $2500 pot, decent  player raises to $3000

the issue is this, I have been doing quite well up to this point and my stack is about $17,000 and he has me covered, I am not concerned with original raiser .

I am fairly confident I am winning at the moment and that he has Ad with K kicker or maybe even Qd with a K .... (If he flopped flush also he is just calling),  I also know that he is gonna shove the turn regardless of what it is.

What do I do here?

 on: August 24, 2014, 02:35:41 pm 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Coughy_boy
I would be thinking, what am i ahead of here that doesn't have  outs

I'm not sure that's the right question.  I am sure most non-regs don't look at it that way.

What happens to our win rate if we are magically able to fold every time someone has a big draw against us?  What if we were magically able to fold QQ PF to AK?  I.e. do we level ourselves that way?

I think the solution is rather that we refuse to eliminate our implied odds, refuse to force our opponents to play well.  I think the problem is the 3-bet.

 on: August 22, 2014, 05:13:13 pm 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Deadmoney
I would be thinking, what am i ahead of here that doesnt have  outs , when the guy shoves, only JT? ....I figured it was an easy fold TBH

AJ, 2 x Hearts's, JJ, TT even AK/AQ has redraws and of course KQ

anyway, I was the opponent in this and I had KQs and MHIG and the guy called me

Regards David

 on: August 22, 2014, 04:00:33 am 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Coughy_boy
My first thought is does the guy have timing tells.  Second thought is pot odds; there's almost 6 in there and it's over 8.75 to call, so you're getting less than 2:1.

You're way ahead of JT and you've got an edge on every draw.  I think I would lean toward folding; fold 2/3.  I don't think I would be willing to fold more often than that.

I think the raise to $2.50 is weak, because it tends to put you in this spot.  Much easier to smooth his raise.

 on: August 22, 2014, 03:43:44 am 
Started by Coughy_boy - Last post by Coughy_boy
Messageboard Grinder.  It's ... legendary.

 on: August 15, 2014, 06:41:21 pm 
Started by Deadmoney - Last post by Deadmoney
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed)

UTG ($14.65)
Button ($3.71)
HERO Sb ($11.68)
(BB) ($15.33)

Preflop: Hero is SB with10, A
2 folds, HERO raises to $0.20, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.40) A, J, 10 (2 players)
HERO bets $0.20, BB raises to $1.10, HERO raises to $2.50, BB raises to $15.13 (All-In), HERO ..............?

BB is a usual 22/13/3

Easy Fold?

 on: July 12, 2014, 02:53:58 am 
Started by MellowYellow - Last post by MellowYellow
Pics or it didn't happen... Hrrrrrmm.... I don't have any of that night specifically... but...

Well here is one of us at the Beach

And here is one of her after a ride at Wild Waves got her soaked and she happened to be wearing a white T-Shirt.

And then there is this one of her eating cherries that I thought I did a pretty good job of taking...

Sorry they are so big... I didn't feel like screen capturing and re sizing everything.

 on: July 01, 2014, 09:39:19 am 
Started by MellowYellow - Last post by lowlim2
I'm depressed I missed this post when you made it Mellow.  That was a great and fun trip report!  Also, pics or it didn't happen.

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